Future Shock: Predictable Present

Alvin Toffler was an author and a futurist, best known for two best-seller non-fiction books which he published in 1970 and 1980 entitled "Future Shock" and "The Third Wave", respectively.

"Future Shock" discussed the psychological and sociological impact of the ever-advancing rate of change (due mostly to technology).  It was in this book that Toffler first coined the term "information overload".  The book discussed numerous examples of ways in which the industrial society of the sixties and seventies was morphing into what Toffler called a"post-industrial society" in which disposable goods increasingly replace durable goods (i.e. goods that no longer function properly are simply replaced rather than being repaired), whole industries die out to be replaced by entirely new ones and people change employers and even professions with increasing frequency; in short, everything becomes less permanent and more temporary from goods, to jobs and even human relationships.

Sound familiar?  So far, I'd have to say that Toffler hit the nail right on the head.

"The Third Wave" discussed the transition from the industrial age to the information age and what effect this would have on society and individual lives.   In several ways, "The Third Wave" was more optimistic than "Future Shock" as it actually discussed how the information age might change peoples' lives for the better.  For example, in this book, Toffler predicted that the five-day work week would likely be reduced to a four-day or even three-day work week with no loss of income for the very practical reason that information technology made it possible for people to be just as productive in three days as they used to be in five.

Ah, but Toffler forgot about one thing; corporate greed.  The reality is that, when one demonstrates that one is able to do the same amount of work in three days that formerly took five days, one's employer simply expects that much productivity after five days.  Put another way, rather than being content with the previous level of productivity in less time, the employer expects increased productivity in the same amount of time for the same pay and reaps the cost savings benefit for themselves.  In fact, most companies, on seeing a 40% increase in productivity, will push for 50% or even 60%.  And when that level of productivity is achieved, the company will demand 70%.  Give 'em an inch, and they'll take a mile, as the old saying goes.

Sorry Dr. Toffler but, had you thought it through, you could have predicted that as well.